Where is India’s inbound heading? Numbers are picking up. We have yet to touch the 2019 figures in inbound, but we are inching slowly. There is this huge infrastructure development, airports opening, airlines connecting, aircraft being ordered – largest aircraft order first by Air India and then again by Indigo. So, in all this space, where does inbound figure? Is there a window for inbound or is it all for affluent Indians going abroad?
Inbound industry has an exceptional opportunity if they understand that India is a long haul and ultra long-haul destination. And what Indigo and Air India are going to do on long haul? In about the next 10 years we will have almost 150 more wide bodies. So, you will see most of North America, multiple frequencies, 8-10 points, most of Europe, UK, Australia, Africa, all operating with the best product, with multi frequencies. They will invest in their brand in these markets and distribution in these markets. So, Indigo and Air India combined, I would think they will operate more than 200 aircraft wide body aircrafts over the next 10 years. Now, if the inbound industry understands that they are going to go nonstop everywhere with multiple frequency and with a good product, it will stimulate traffic. Third, fourth, freedom carriers stimulate traffic, too. Now, if the industry is awake and alert to the situation of what’s going to happen, I’m sure there are tremendous opportunities.
It is true that most of the Indian carriers will take Indian traffic out and the diaspora traffic from and to the US, and other such markets that have a significant Indian origin population. So yes, because if flights are getting full, they are able to get significant yield, I don’t think there is any need for them to think differently unless and until government and all of you guys in the inbound get together and say, let’s work together. But I don’t think anybody’s interested. If you’re not interested, I don’t think airlines will go out of the way if their fights are full, they’re making good money.
Basically, inbound to me is restricted to trade shows; is restricted primarily to some few micro activities. I don’t think we have a larger picture of how to get inbound leisure. Because the moment you look at tourism from NRIs and Bangladeshis and Sri Lankans to come, you are bound to have a growth. And if that growth keeps you happy, that’s fine. Look at inbound leisure, I think you have an opportunity if you want to convert inbound leisure working with Indian carriers, that will redefine distribution, that would need some investment collaboration. We have a historic opportunity.
The second point of inbound is we don’t yet have a short haul inbound business that comes from the Middle East, for example, that comes from Southeast Asia. Now, with Indigo bringing these LRs, XLRs and 321 Neo, so you have the opportunity both for the six to seven hours with XLRs to go up to eight hours in some parts of Eastern Europe with these wide bodies which are going to fly there. Now, it is a question for the industry to say that, listen if we are happy with business travellers coming and OCIs and H1B moving, and that’s tourism, then good luck to them; but if you really want inbound, I don’t think India has ever had an opportunity like this that’s going to present itself.
